Pottery Studio in Everyday Operation

The Studio's Policy#

Policy	Value
Time zone	`Europe/Berlin`
Reservation	holds for 10 minutes
Payment	within 7 days, or within 3 days when the course begins in fewer than 21 days

So reservedUntil lies ten minutes after reservedAt, and a booking placed on a Monday for a course a month later is payable until the Monday after.

The Repertoire#

The studio offers a dozen courses of its own, which it schedules again and again:

Course	Sessions	Seats	Fee per seat	When	Share
Wheel Throwing for Beginners	2, a week apart	3	200 €	a weekday at 5 p.m., 2½ hours	35 %
Pottery Taster	1	8	70 €	Saturday or Sunday at 10:30 a.m., 2½ hours	12 %
Wheel Throwing Course	5, a week apart	3	360 €	a weekday at 6 p.m., 2½ hours	12 %
Hand-Building Bowls and Plates	2, a week apart	7	160 €	a weekday at 6 p.m., 2 hours	8 %
Make Your Own Mug	1	6	80 €	Saturday or Sunday at 2 p.m., 3 hours	6 %
Glazing Session	1	6	40 €	a weekday at 6 p.m., 2 hours	5 %
Pottery for Two	1	2	140 €	Friday or Saturday at 6:30 p.m., 2½ hours	5 %
Advanced Wheel Throwing	3, a week apart	3	240 €	a weekday at 6 p.m., 2½ hours	5 %
Kids' Clay Afternoon	1	8	35 €	Saturday at 2 p.m., 1½ hours	4 %
Raku Firing Weekend	2, Saturday and Sunday	6	220 €	at 10 a.m., 4 hours	3 %
Sculpting in Clay	3, a week apart	6	190 €	a weekday at 6 p.m., 2½ hours	3 %
Private Wheel Lesson	1	1	90 €	a weekday at 10:30 a.m. or 4 p.m., 1 hour	2 %

A weekday is mostly Tuesday to Thursday, and now and then Monday or Friday. Pottery for Two is always booked for two, and a Private Wheel Lesson for one.

The Studio#

Every Monday morning, the studio schedules courses whose first sessions lie mostly six to eight weeks later, and about one in five eight to thirteen weeks later, so that customers can book up to three months ahead.
It hands out the courses of its repertoire in turn, by their shares, rather than drawing them, so that even the few courses of a small studio are a mix like those of a large one.
It offers about two seats for every three its customers want, so that most courses fill up before they begin, and about one attempt in four to book finds no seat.
It calls about one course in ten off, mostly in the week before it begins, and then cancels every booking of the course with the reason course-canceled.
It works in office hours, Tuesday to Saturday from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.: it records payments by transfer and in other ways, takes bookings by phone, and cancels bookings, such as those that are never paid.

Taking Over the Plan#

The studio existed before its records were kept here, so a run begins by taking over its plan: the courses of the next thirteen weeks, scheduled as course-scheduled one after the other, a few milliseconds apart, from the beginning of the range on, as a migration runs. The bookings made before are not taken over, so the first courses fill in a hurry or stay half empty.

The Customers#

Each customer sets out to book at a pace of their own, from about once a year to about once a month, spread evenly over the customers rather than drawn at random. In autumn they set out about a quarter more often, and in December and January about a fifth less.
A customer wants a course about five weeks ahead, one time in ten within about a week, and at most about three months ahead. They look at the six courses that begin closest to that, pick one as much as its seats appeal, and try up to three of them before giving up when they are full.
Most customers book online, at any hour, most in the evening and hardly at night, mostly within a minute of reserving. About one booking in eight is made by phone, in the studio's office hours, in the same four steps.
About four reservations in ten end without a booking: a third are given up at once by somebody who goes back and reserves again, a quarter are canceled as they lapse, and the rest are left to lapse.
Most bookings are for one seat, about one in six for two, and a few for three or four.

Payments and Cancellations#

About 85 % of the bookings are paid by transfer, 7 % in cash at the first session, 3 % online right after the booking is confirmed, and 5 % in other ways.
A transfer comes in about ten days after the booking, and two times in three after the day it was due.
About one booking in 25 is paid in two installments, about one in 50 is settled for less by the studio, and about one in 100 is paid too much.
About one booking in 50 is never paid. The studio cancels it with the reason unpaid two weeks after it was due, if its course has not begun yet.
About one booking in seven is canceled on request, in the median a little over two weeks before its course, and a quarter of them in the last week. Whoever books further ahead cancels more often.

What This Means for the Data#

The population of the scenario is counted in customers. The seats the studio offers grow with them, so the number of events grows about in proportion to the number of customers. A studio of only a few customers, as a long range with few events makes, offers so few courses that a customer who finds one full often has no other to try, so its customers book somewhat less, over ten years about a fifth.
The customers are there from the beginning of the range and book at their own pace from the first day on. Payments and cancellations follow their bookings, so they catch up over the first weeks.
The events happen at the hours of the studio and its customers, in Berlin time. Their time is in UTC, so a session at 6 p.m. in winter begins at 5 p.m. UTC.
A customer who is refused, because a course is full, leaves no event. What you see of it is a reservation on another course, or none.
booking-failed is rare: a booking fails only when its reservation lapsed and somebody else took the seats in the meantime.
A booking by phone and one online look alike in the events: no field says how it was made. Outside the office hours, a booking was made online, unless it was placed in the first two minutes after closing, which a call taken just before may run into.